Saturday, September 12, 2015

Short Term Market Outlook

Hi Folks,

I thought I'd share my short term trading thoughts. A few weeks ago I told you that I believed that SPY would trade down to 190 within 2 weeks which would represent a 10% drop and that is what happened. I am not revisiting to brag but to point out that the technical analysis that I do works.

Normally based upon my technical analysis used for day trading I would be actually short term bullish on the market(please don't confuse this with me turning bullish). Meaning the next few days would be bullish. My long term position is the same. The market is going down longer term. That being said, even though my short term signals say buy, the longer term look really bad. Putting literally the next few days as a potential for something bad to happen in the world. Before you think I'm nuts let me explain. My call for SPY to hit 190 was a given in my opinion. My concern over terrorism or something else in the next few days is not a given. My reason for this is because even though the market was down 14% off the highs at it's low a few weeks ago, the market should have gone lower from a technical standpoint. If it's going to go lower according to the technical analysis I do, it requires some sort of unforeseen event to turn this down again in the short term. Otherwise, the market will bounce in the next few days.

Thanks and Good Trading,